Friday, May 2, 2008

Analysis: Edging toward 'silent acceptance' of a truce
Yaakov Katz , THE JERUSALEM POST May. 2, 2008
www.jpost.com
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When it comes to Egypt's proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza, the Israeli
defense establishment is united on at least one assessment - Hamas has
everything to gain from six months of quiet in the Strip.
The differences begin to surface when officials start pondering the pros and
cons for Israel of the proffered truce.

Ultimately, the decision on whether to accept Cairo's proposal will be up to
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

The position of the IDF's Southern Command has been quite clear all along.
OC Southern Command Maj.-Gen. Yoav Galant has said on more than one occasion
in recent closed-door meetings that Hamas would use a cease-fire to rebuild
its military infrastructure, extend the range of its rockets and fortify its
positions ahead of a future Israeli invasion.

IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi has yet to make his
opinion publicly known. He has, however, objected to a large-scale operation
in Gaza since taking office a little over a year ago and as such may prefer
a six-month cease-fire over the alternative, which is a continuation of
hostilities and an eventual Israeli invasion.
There are, however, other considerations that are not purely military.

One is the fate of kidnapped soldier Gilad Schalit. Officials involved in
the truce talks told The Jerusalem Post this week that the soldier's release
would be dramatically expedited were the cease-fire accepted by Israel.

In addition, the cease-fire could enable Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas to regain a foothold in the Gaza Strip for the first time
since Hamas violently took it over last June.
Under the package approved by Hamas and the other Palestinian factions, the
Rafah crossing to Egypt would reopen according to the agreement reached by
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in 2005.

Based on that agreement, European monitors would deploy at the crossing and
assist officers from the PA's Presidential Guard - loyal to Abbas - in
running the border terminal.
From an Egyptian point of view, the reopening of Rafah is symbolic for a
number of reasons.

First, it lifts the siege on Gaza and enables Palestinians to travel freely
in and out of the Strip. More importantly, it strengthens what Cairo calls
the "pragmatic elements" in Hamas - such as Ismail Haniyeh - and at the same
time enables Abbas to slowly reestablish a Fatah presence in Gaza.

According to an Israeli official closely involved in the talks with Cairo,
if Israel were to outright reject the cease-fire proposal this would be
interpreted as a slap in the face of President Hosni Mubarak and
Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman, who have both invested considerable
time and energy in obtaining Hamas's approval.

If Israel accepts the cease-fire, Egypt will have to play a crucial role.

One of Israel's greatest concerns with a truce is the possibility that Hamas
will continue smuggling weapons into Gaza and build up its military
infrastructure at an unprecedented rate. It will be up to Egypt to prevent
this.

In the end what is likely to happen is that Israel will "silently" accept
the offer. Olmert will not hold a press conference and announce Israel's
acceptance of the cease-fire but the message will likely be transmitted in
the talks defense official Amos Gilad holds regularly with Suleiman.

Israel also has to be concerned about its image abroad and what the
international community will say if it rejects the cease-fire.

The US, the Post has reported, is pressuring Jerusalem to wrap up the deal
ahead of President George W. Bush's visit to Israel in two weeks. And Israel
would have a tough time explaining its policies abroad if it continues
firing in Gaza when Hamas and the other factions have all announced their
readiness to lay down their weapons.

Olmert's political standing also needs to be accounted for. If he agrees to
the cease-fire and it lasts, he could use the quiet in Sderot and the rest
of the Gaza-belt communities as an asset ahead of the political turbulence
that is expected toward the end of the year.