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Here is the latest according to several of my sources.

First the votes of the IDF could equal up to six mandates, which could mean a huge swing in who can claim victory.
Israel should know how this turns out later today at the earliest.

Second if Bibi forms a government with 65 mandates, he at some point might offer Kadima to join him as a coalition partner which Livni will turn down. If and when this happens look for members of Kadima that had in the past split from the Likud when Kadima was formed to resign from Kadima and rejoin the Likud which could bring the number of mandtes for the Nationalist camp up to 75 mandates.